Wednesday, February 7, 2007

What the Spring Selling Season May Mean For The Housing Market




By Lauren Baier Kim


Here's a look at what's new in real-estate markets across the U.S. from around the Web. (Some links may require registration or subscriptions.)

Housing slump here to stay
New data released by the Census Bureau shows that the vacancy rate of homes for sale, at 2.7%, or 2.1 million vacant homes, is at its highest level since the bureau began tracking it 40 years ago, according to a Wall Street Journal Online article. These properties, many of which are likely held by investors, could bring housing values down further as prices are slashed to attract buyers, WSJ Online says. Meanwhile, CNNMoney.com reports that figures released by Case Shiller Weiss indicate that nearly every major housing market in the U.S. has seen price declines in November. Showing the largest year-over-year price declines that month were Boston, with a 5% dip, and Detroit, with a 4.5% drop, CNNMoney says. The biggest year-over-year price increases were in Seattle (13%), Portland (11.6%) and Miami (7.4%), according to the article, which includes a chart summarizing market trends for 20 U.S. cities.

Super Bowl could kick off sales
Even Bears fans may have a reason to celebrate this year's Super Bowl, says a Chicago Tribune article. That's because the tournament is traditionally the start of the housing market's spring selling season, when sales typically kick into high gear, the article says. According to the newspaper, Chicago-area real-estate agents have seen the number of relistings rise in January -- a sign that home sellers may be returning to the marketplace -- and an increase in the number of home sales. However, the Tribune notes, a surging number of active listings, or homes for sale -- which climbed from 2,900 to 43,000 for the metro in January alone, could douse possibilities of a real-estate warming trend this spring, the article says. A true housing rebound won't be seen for some time, the paper says. "We won't see prices start to accelerate until 2008," the Tribune quotes one national economist as saying.

Unsold homes tether divorced couples
In Detroit, "roomie" is what some divorced couples are calling their exes, says a Detroit News article posted on the San Diego-Union Tribune's Web site. Thanks to the city's hard-hit housing market, homeowners are finding it difficult to sell their homes, so instead of parting ways after divorce, some are living together as a means to cut expenses, and others are selling their properties at "fire-sale" prices, the article says. Metro-area home prices dropped 10.5% between the third quarters of 2005 and 2006, and home sales fell 17.2% in the third quarter, the article says. "They're constantly wondering when the house is going to sell because they can't stand living with each other any more," the Detroit News quotes a local real-estate broker as saying about these unhappy couples.

Too many teardowns in Dallas
Builders may have overestimated the demand for new homes in Dallas's close-in neighborhoods, according to an article by the Dallas Morning News. Responding to buyer interest, builders have been tearing down older homes in several of Dallas's older communities to produce, bigger, newer homes, the newspaper says. These neighborhoods include areas east of North Central Expressway like Lakewood Heights and University Park with houses built in the 1920s to 1940s, the paper says. According to the newspaper, there are 284 homes, or more than a five-month supply, of completed new homes on the market in the city's teardown neighborhoods. Including homes that are under construction raises the inventory to a 12-month supply, the article says. Builders started 927 houses last year in these neighborhoods, the paper says.

Young investors take on New York
For home buyers under 30 years old in New York City, financing as much as 95% of the cost of a new home or relying on adjustable-rate mortgages with attractive initial rates to secure a property is not uncommon, says a New York Times article. For these home buyers, the purchase of a first home is more akin to an investment decision that an emotional one, the newspaper says. Should home prices fall, such homeowners are at risk of being left with no equity in their homes, the Times notes. "These buyers have never lived through bad times," the paper quotes the president of one local real-estate firm as saying. Condos are more popular among this age group than co-ops, since condominiums typically require a lower down payment, the article says. To entice this demographic, some New York City developers are marketing their apartments as future rentals to position them as solid investments, the Times says.

More rate hikes may be needed, Plosser says

'Too soon to declare victory,' according to Philly Fed chief

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:50 AM ET Feb 7, 2007


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve may have to hike short-term interest rates in coming months to ensure that inflation continues to decline, said Charles Plosser, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Late last year, Plosser said he thought the current federal funds rate of 5.25% might be sufficient to keep inflation in check.

But as the economy has strengthened in recent weeks, "that scenario becomes less likely," Plosser said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.

"Additional monetary policy action may be needed to keep us moving along the path to price stability," Plosser said. Read full speech.

The Philadelphia Fed bank chief said inflation remains his primary concern.
"While we got some encouraging inflation numbers toward the end of last year, I am not convinced that underlying inflation is on a downward trend," Plosser said.
"While I think it is possible that the recent moderation of inflation will continue ... I believe it is too soon to declare victory," he said.

He forecast U.S. economic growth at a 3.0% annual rate in 2007, which should hold the unemployment rate below 5.0%.

"My best guess is that the economy will continue to perform well in 2007," Plosser said.
Plosser also said he expects gradual improvement in the housing sector over 2007.
With growth prospects for the economy improving, "there is some risk that we may not see a return to price stability unless monetary conditions are further tightened," he said.
Plosser said that market interest rates tend to move higher when economic growth's strong, adding: "If the Fed does not allow short-term interest rates to rise with the market, it sets the stage for even higher inflation."

Fed policymakers voted to hold overnight interest rates steady at 5.25% for their fifth straight meeting last week but said they remain concerned over inflation. Read comprehensive Fed coverage.

Plosser, who joined the Philadelphia Fed last August, has been consistently warning since that time that more rate hikes may be needed.

Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.

Blogger's Note:
I'm still struggling with the way the Fed determines rates and when to change them. The past few years the market was hot and inflation was growing so the Fed raised rates to slow it down. However, not only have the prices in my area not gone down, people are actually leaving the area because they can't afford to live here anymore. By the way I live in South Florida, land of high taxes and absurdly high insurance rates.

Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Welcome to RealEstateGab - Real Estate Investment Blog

Ah real estate, depending on who you are it may conjure up visions of big beautiful homes, money, cars, etc., or of burocracy, red tape, gouging, and overall mayhem. Regardless of which side of the fence you are on, we want to talk about it. I personally have been on both sides of the fence and I realized there was a real need for a place for people like you and me to ask our questions.

This site will hopefully bring to light a number of questions that we all have had about real estate.

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